How UKIP voters compare | YouGov

July 2024 · 5 minute read

UKIP voters: older and poorer than Tories – but LESS right-wing

Nobody should be surprised that YouGov’s latest poll for the Sun has UKIP at its highest level yet, 12%, following the Eastleigh result. The Lib Dems, also on 12%, have also benefited from the publicity surrounding their victory while Labour, at 40%, have dipped nationally following their fourth place in the by-election.

Want to receive Peter Kellner's commentaries by email? Subscribe here

UKIP’s rise has been accompanied by plenty of speculation, but few hard facts, about the kind of people who are supporting them. Part of the problem is that the number of UKIP supporters in any single poll is too small to provide reliable data. So we have combined all the voting intention surveys that YouGov conducted during February. This provided a total sample of almost 30,000, including more than 2,700 who told us they would vote UKIP.

This is what we found:

For those who prefer their data in tabular form, here are the key percentages:

All

Current vote

% who...

Con

UKIP

Voted Conservative in 2010

37

88

60

If forced to choose, would prefer...*

Regard themselves as centre or left-of-centre

51

25

36

Are male

48

52

57

* Asked on two surveys; number of UKIP supporters: 369; rest of data draws on responses of 2,788 UKIP supporters

In Eastleigh, of course, UKIP’s support shot up to 28%. The signs are that this support was demographically broader than the figures above. At next year’s European parliament elections, UKIP will probably come first, again with a broad demographic spread. However, I would expect UKIP’s support at a general election to fall back below 10%, and to revert to its core-vote profile along the lines of the above data.

Unless… in our first post-Eastleigh poll, we also invited respondents to consider how they might vote if they felt that Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and UKIP all had a chance of winning. We asked about their attitude to each party separately. Here are the figures when we asked about UKIP, showing the responses of all electors, and those of people who currently say they would vote Tory:

Would definitely vote UKIP

8

3

Would seriously consider voting UKIP

12

21

Would give some consideration to voting UKIP

18

19

Total would consider voting UKIP

38

43

Would probably not consider voting for this party

10

13

Would definitely NOT vote for this party

43

42

Don't know

10

2

Those figures should worry the Tories. They cannot be happy with the fact that a quarter of their own supporters would ‘definitely’ vote UKIP or ‘seriously consider’ voting UKIP, and that almost half of them would at least give some consideration to voting UKIP.

In reality, I should be astonished if anything like that proportion did in fact make the switch. But a very much smaller number of defectors would be enough to wreck Tory hopes. Indeed, even if UKIP just held on its current ex-Tory voters and did not win over any more, David Cameron would be heading for a heavy defeat. What we have here is evidence that 12% may well not be UKIP’s peak polling rating. Not only is a strong performance in next year’s euro-election a near-certainty, it will have chances to shine in the local elections now just eight weeks away and, probably, in further by-elections later in this Parliament.

Even so, UKIP’s chances of winning any seats in the 2015 general election remain slim; but their impact on the fortunes of the other parties could be considerable and, potentially, dramatic.

See the full survey details and results for YouGov's latest poll for the Sun

See the full survey details and results of all voting intentions surveys YouGov conducted in February 2013

See the full survey details and results for YouGov's first post-Eastleigh poll

This article is also featured on the Comment is Free section of the Guardian

Want to receive Peter Kellner's commentaries by email? Subscribe here

ncG1vNJzZmixn6q0sMKNnKZnrZtkvbC4yK2gnKtflr%2B1tcKlnKxnZWmCdHnAp5ilsaOewG7ByqKnZq6fqbKzvw%3D%3D